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Detailed Odds for the FIFA World Cup 2018

This is a compilation of probabilities, odds and likely scenarios for the FIFA World Cup 2018. The World Cup statistics and predictions are based on the predictive power of the World Football Elo Ratings - the most accurate football rating system to date.

The following comprehensive World Cup statistics show the probabilities and odds for each team to become world champion, the chances to advance in their group, the possible match-ups for the round of 16, quarterfinal, semifinal and final and the relative strength of each team. How those predictions work is explained below.

TeamWinnerFinalSemisQuarterRo16ELO
Brazil28.38%42.3%58.7%74.9%96%2,131
Germany19.89%33.2%50.5%68.0%94%2,092
Spain13.41%24.7%47.5%71.5%89%2,048
Portugal6.18%14.1%31.9%55.6%78%1,975
Argentina6.13%13.6%28.6%53.7%88%1,985
France6.09%13.3%29.5%52.9%81%1,984
England3.96%10.0%20.5%54.9%87%1,941
Belgium3.47%9.1%19.1%52.8%86%1,931
Colombia3.25%8.5%17.8%46.8%84%1,935
Uruguay1.93%5.8%16.6%36.0%89%1,890
Peru1.92%5.5%14.7%33.1%63%1,906
Switzerland1.24%3.9%9.6%20.4%59%1,879
Mexico0.99%3.2%7.8%17.0%55%1,870
Croatia0.69%2.5%8.2%22.4%57%1,842
Poland0.59%2.2%6.2%24.3%61%1,831
Denmark0.56%2.0%6.5%18.1%42%1,843
Russia0.32%1.4%5.9%18.2%71%1,785
Iceland0.20%0.9%3.8%12.3%38%1,787
Iran0.20%0.9%3.5%10.4%23%1,793
Sweden0.19%0.8%2.5%6.9%31%1,796
Serbia0.10%0.5%1.8%5.5%25%1,770
Senegal0.09%0.5%1.8%9.8%34%1,747
Costa Rica0.05%0.3%1.1%3.9%20%1,745
South Korea0.05%0.3%1.0%3.5%20%1,746
Morocco0.02%0.2%0.9%3.6%10%1,711
Australia0.02%0.1%0.8%3.6%14%1,714
Nigeria0.02%0.1%0.9%3.9%18%1,699
Japan0.02%0.1%0.7%4.9%21%1,693
Panama0.01%0.1%0.5%3.6%14%1,663
Egypt0.01%0.1%0.6%3.5%27%1,646
Tunisia0.01%0.1%0.4%2.9%13%1,649
Saudi Arabia0.00%0.0%0.1%1.1%13%1,568

Tree map for all teams to become Football World Champion 2018 (bigger squares mean higher likelyhood):

How do Those Statistics for the FIFA World Cup 2018 work?

Odds for the FIFA World Cup 2018Odds for the FIFA World Cup 2018

My statistics for the 2018 World Cup rely entirely on the Football Elo Rating system which is based on the Elo System used for chess and which was adapted to football by Bob Runyan 20 years ago. Each team has a rating which factors in the results from previous matches and the rating strongly correlates with the current performance of the team.

Given the Elo Ratings of two teams A and B it's possible to calculate the statistical probabilities of team A winning against team B and vice versa. Eloratings.net explains in detail, how those probabilities are calculated. A study in 2009 showed that from all football ranking systems the Elo Rating System was best suited for predictions of football games. While the system is far from perfect, it's much better suited than other rating systems like the FIFA Rankings which can be cheated easily (looking at you, Poland).

Given the Elo Ratings for all 32 teams qualified for the World Cup 2018 and the group seedings I calculated the probabilities for all games during the group stage and all potential fixtures during the later part of the tournament.

Some Notes regarding my World Cup 2018 Odds


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